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Market
Outlook: A Look Back … and Ahead
by Dave Brazelton, Owner, Fall Creek Farm and Nursery
Blueberry growers in all western states and British Columbia enjoyed
record crops for both fresh and process berries in 2010. While fresh
returns suffered in California due to compression of volumes into
the mid-May to June window, overall fresh pricing the rest of the
2010 summer was reasonable, with strong returns to Oregon growers
for the late season harvest. Process pricing recovered in the summer
of 2010 from the disastrous 2009 season and, with a small low-bush
crop coupled with very strong demand, has improved steadily throughout
the winter. Currently, process prices are near record levels and
availability from cold storage is extremely limited. The primary
worry among sellers is buyer resistance to the high prices and limited
availability.
So how does this history portend for Oregon growers in 2011? In
general, the outlook for this year is favorable. The fundamentals
for the blueberry industry remain extremely strong; new consumers,
new products and a perfect position in the healthy and convenient
categories. Fresh consumption continues to break records throughout
North America and the world, even during these recessionary times.
But fresh liquidations to growers are dependent on many factors,
most importantly, the dynamics of supply/demand and quality in the
marketplace at the time your fruit enters the market. Most marketers
are optimistic that it will be a very good season, but it’s
anyone’s guess what the conditions will be on any given day
or week.
Available frozen product held in cold storage going into this season
will be at very low levels and prices very high. Countering these
positive factors will likely be continuing record production in
the West and possibly throughout North America. The bearing surface
is there, but as we like to say, “We always have a record
crop just before bloom.” It should also be noted that very
high process prices after the season and, in general, were not realized
by Oregon growers. Buyer resistance to the near-record prices and
a likely record North American crop could moderate processed returns.
If things fall right, we could hit the sweet spot; fair returns
for growers, packers and buyers, and fair prices for consumers.
We can only hope that the pendulum doesn’t swing again in
the opposite direction like it did two years ago.
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Articles:
Message from the Chairman
Spotted
Wing Drosophila Update
Market
Outlook:
A Look Back …
and Ahead
Bumbles
and Blueberries
Organic
Blueberry Production Research Project
Critical
Program Needs Industry Support
Small
Growers to Receive GAP Certification Aid
Oregon
Fresh Season Promotion On a Roll for 2011
Bee
Fees Jump a Bit
Smooth
Move Increases Insulin Sensitivity
New
Trap Hits
the Spots
(Spotted Wing Drosophila)
OSU
Researcher Driving Blueberries up a Tree
USHBC
Unveils New “Little Blue Dynamos” Positioning and Campaign
for Highbush Blueberries
Watching
World Acreage and
Production Grow
Specialty
Crop Grant Supports Oregon Berry Festival;
Free Berry Vendor Space Available
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